Employment momentum
Change in the number of stable jobs in a county, measured over one, three, and five years.
On this page
How fast employment in a county is growing or shrinking, measured on the Census Bureau's count of stable jobs.
The Bureau defines full-quarter employment, the base used here, as an "estimate of stable jobs, i.e., the number of jobs that are held on both the first and last day of the quarter with the same employer" (QWI 101). That base excludes jobs that started and ended inside a single quarter, so it moves less than a headcount taken on one day and reflects employment that lasted.
These figures come from quarterly payroll filings rather than a household survey, so they describe the labor market more recently than most other employment data on this site, though still with a lag of several quarters.
Metrics in this family#
Employment growth, one year
trendChange in stable employment against the same quarter one year earlier, as a percentage.
Employment growth, three years
trendChange in stable employment against the same quarter three years earlier, expressed as an annual rate.
Employment growth, five years
trendThe same comparison against the same quarter five years earlier, also expressed as an annual rate.
Employment against its recent average
trendCurrent stable employment compared with its own average over the recent past, rather than with a single earlier quarter. This reads as whether a county is above or below its own recent normal, and is less sensitive to an unusual starting quarter than a point-to-point comparison.
Considerations#
The series is not seasonally adjusted, so every comparison here is between the same quarter in different years rather than between consecutive quarters.
This is a county measure. Every tract in a county shows the same figure, and employment growth is not spread evenly within a county. See how we combine geographies.
Coverage follows jobs covered by state unemployment insurance. The Bureau notes that "Federal employment has not been integrated into the regular releases of the QWI" and that uncovered work includes "some agricultural jobs, railroad employment, self-employment, and other exceptions that vary from state to state" (QWI 101).
Employment counts are tied to the place of work, not the place of residence, so a county's growth describes the jobs located there rather than the people living there.
Each release republishes the whole history and revises it, so a figure can change between releases. Longer windows require enough history: where a county's series does not reach back far enough, the longer comparisons are unavailable. Counties whose reporting has fallen well behind the rest of the country show no value at all.
Published cells carry statistical noise for disclosure protection, and cells that fail publication standards are withheld. Small counties are affected more often.
References#
- 1QWI 101https://lehd.ces.census.gov/doc/QWI_101.pdf